0624GMT/April 24 2025
>> WAR TALKS DOWNGRADED: Ukraine war negotiations in London were downgraded on Wednesday from foreign minister level to "expert level" after Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, and Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's personal envoy, pulled out. (COMMENT: Being downgraded to "expert level" highlights how Europe, Britain and Ukraine have been sidelined by direct US-Russia talks.)
>> US "IN TUNE" WITH RUSSIA: Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said that the US is now more in tune with the Kremlin's thinking on Ukraine because "we have had a real conversation with them after three years of silence". (COMMENT: This is a continuation of the remarkable change in language since Trump took over as US President in January. Trump's detractors have accused him of appeasement of Putin over Ukraine.)
>> MORE WEAPONS: Putin ordered his military-industrial complex chiefs to speed up the development of the next generation of battlefield spy satellites. He also said that weapons production in Russia has doubled over the past year but there were "still not enough weapons". (COMMENT: Although it's hard to trust Russian data on its military production, it is clear that Russia's arms manufacturing base has rapidly increased output. Even so, Putin understands that military production, as much as anything else, wins wars and has demanded more from his military-industrial complex.)
>> DRONE HIT: Ukraine said that it had struck one of Russia's main drone factories in Tartarstan, central Russia, with three drones. (NOTE: Tartarstan is the centre of Russian drone production. This is where Putin ordered a new factory to pump out copies of Iran's Shahed drones, one of his favourite Ukraine war weapons. It is unclear how extensive the damage is from this particular attack. The Kremlin has not commented.)
>> GYM RAID: Russian police raided another gym in Moscow on Wednesday. Wearing masks and flanked by dog teams, the police divided up the men using the gym on the southern outskirts of Moscow into Russians and migrant workers. The police then took away the migrant workers and handed out draft notices to some of the Russian men. (NOTE: Raids on gyms for military conscription have increased this year in Russia. There have also been reports that migrant workers from Central Asia are being pressured to sign up to the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.)
>> ROUBLE DROPS: The Russian rouble lost around 1.5%/2% of its value against major foreign currencies on worries that peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine were stalling. (NOTE: The rouble is now trading at around $1/82.7 and 1 euro/94.5.)
>> ECON WARNING: Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, warned that "global trade wars" could hurt Russia and that spending may have to be cut. (COMMENT: It's important to keep these incremental economic statements on the front-burner. Siluanov said that the Russian government would recalculate its income from oil at $56/barrel for Urals, rather than at $60/barrel.)
>> POPE FUNERAL: The Kremlin is sending Olga Lyubimova, Russia's culture minister, as its representative to the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome on Saturday. As a member of Russia's government since its invasion of Ukraine, Lyubimova has been sanctioned by the EU, which technically means that she is banned from travelling to Italy. (NOTE: EU sanctions on prominent Russians cover finances and travel.) (COMMENT: This is a relatively low-ranking minister but the Kremlin was constrained by arrest warrants on Putin and other senior Kremlin members. Other countries are sending senior representatives. Trump is travelling from Washington and Prince William from Britain. It's not clear how Lyubimova will travel to Rome with sanctions in place. She may receive a diplomatic pass.)
>> TALIBAN EMBASSY: The Taliban said that it was keen to open an embassy in Moscow. (COMMENT: The Kremlin only removed the Taliban from its terrorist list this week. But this works well for the Kremlin, which wants to restore ties with Afghanistan so that it can forge trade routes to markets in South Asia.)
>> TAX BREAK: Anton Kotyakov, Russia's labour minister, said that low-wage parents with two or more children will receive an income tax cut from next year. Instead of paying the basic rate of 13%, low-income families will only pay 6% tax. (COMMENT: The Kremlin is desperate to boost Russia's population and encourage more women to have babies. Cutting taxes and giving out handouts is one way they have tried to stimulate birth rate growth.)